中国大豆播种面积的影响因素分析

选取2001²011年中国大豆主产区的十个省份的面板数据,利用固定效应模型对影响我国大豆播种面积的因素进行了分析。研究表明:大豆与竞争作物的相对比较收益对我国大豆播种面积具有负向作用;非农就业机会的增加是引起我国大豆播种面积下降的主要原因;在其他条件不变的条件下,农户会遵循以往的大豆种植面积;2008年末实施的大豆临时存储政策对稳定我国大豆播种面积起到了积极正向的作用。在研究基础上提出了相关建议,希望能为我国的大豆政策制定提供参考。

Analysis on Influential Factors of Soybean Planting Acreage in China

Based on the fixed effects model and the panel data of ten provinces in China during 2001--2011, this paper makes research on the influential factors on the soybean acreage in China. Research shows that the relative income be- tween soybean and the competitive crop has negative effect on soybean acreage in China; increasing non--agricultural em- ployment is the main reason for the decline in soybean acreage in China; when other conditions keep constant , the house- hold will follow previous soybean acreage; soybean temporary storage policy at the end of 2008 has positive effect on the stability of soybean acreage in China. This paper put forward some suggestions to provide a reference for our country＇s soybean policy.