我国居民消费季节调整和节日效应测算

Bayes季节调整方法因有坚实的理论基础，调整效果优于其它方法等，目前正日益受到广泛的重视与应用。本文将Bayes季节调整模型引入国内，同时在模型中补充贸易日和闰年的影响。用R软件的Timsac包中的Bayesian程序实现对社会消费品零售额的季节调整和环比增长率测算，表明长期我国社会消费品零售总额具有稳定的指数增长趋势和U型季节特征，得到的月环比增长率反应灵敏。通过季节指数抛物线拟合，得到“五一”和“十一”节日经济效应和比例。总体上“五一”的节日效应显著，“十一”仍有正面效应，但影响不显著。

China's Consumption Seasonal Adjustment and Holiday Effect Estimation

With solid theoretical foundation and better adjustment results, the Bayes seasonal adjustment method is increasingly widely paid attention to and applied. This paper introduces the Bayes seasonal adjustment model and adds effects of the trade day and the leap year to the model. Seasonal adjustment and chain growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods are estimated by the Bayesian procedure of R Timsac software. It is shown that in the long term China's total retail sales have a stable trend of exponential growth and seasonal characteristics of U-shaped, and estimated growth rates on a month-to-month basis are sensitive. The "May Day" and "National Day" holiday effect and the proportions are obtained by parabola fitting of seasonal index. "May Day" holiday effect is significant, and "National Day" holiday effect is positive but not significant.