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Bayesian inference for circular distributions with unknown normalising constants
Authors:Sourabh Bhattacharya  Ashis SenGupta  
Affiliation:aBayesian and Interdisciplinary Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B. T. Road, Kolkata 700108, India;bApplied Statistics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B. T. Road, Kolkata 700108, India
Abstract:Very often, the likelihoods for circular data sets are of quite complicated forms, and the functional forms of the normalising constants, which depend upon the unknown parameters, are unknown. This latter problem generally precludes rigorous, exact inference (both classical and Bayesian) for circular data.Noting the paucity of literature on Bayesian circular data analysis, and also because realistic data analysis is naturally permitted by the Bayesian paradigm, we address the above problem taking a Bayesian perspective. In particular, we propose a methodology that combines importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a very effective manner to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters, given the circular data. With simulation study and real data analysis, we demonstrate the considerable reliability and flexibility of our proposed methodology in analysing circular data.
Keywords:Bayesian inference   Circular statistics   Importance sampling   Markov chain Monte Carlo   Umbrella sampling   von-Mises distribution
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