未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。

The National and Regional Urbanization Projection for China

Urbanization will be a driving force behind Chinese social-economic growth over the next few decades. But demographic changes and huge rural to urban migration are key challenges that are emerging even as the urbanization process accelerates. This paper presents demographic scenarios at both national and regional levels under the assumption of moderate urbanization for the period 2000 through 2030. Results of this forecast provide insights on the long-term urbanization trends in China;in particular the results demonstrate the importance of rural-urban migration and the transformation of rural settlements into cities in causing a high rate of population growth in urban areas,and an aging population in rural areas.