欧元的汇率走势及其影响因素

欧元启动后兑美元的汇率一直高开低走,但从2002年7月中旬开始,欧元在纸币与硬币顺利流通、美国经济滑坡等利好因素下,汇率持续上扬。欧元是一种没有统一政治实体的“联盟货币”;区内统一的货币政策与独立的财政政策之间缺乏有效的协调机制;英镑不可能在近期加入欧元;这些是影响欧元汇率长期走势的主要因素。今后欧元汇率仍会在长期的振荡调整中徘徊并缓慢上升。

The Fluctuation of Euro's Exchange Rate and Its Effecting Factors

The movement of Euro's exchange rate against U.S. dollar has been from high to low since its issue on January 1, 1999. However, Euro has been appreciating since mid July in 2002 with some favor-able factors like the normai circulation of its paper currencies and coins. As the nature of Euro is "a u-nion currency" without the support of a unified political entity; there isn't an effective co - ordinating mechanism between the unified currency policy and the individual financial policies of the Euro countries; it is impossible for Britain to be the Euro member country soon. All these factors effect Euro's exchange rate against U.S.dallor, and Euro's exchange rate will be adjusted and rises slowly vvithin a long period in future.