中国能源消费、经济增长与能源需求预测的研究

本文利用历史数据并运用灰色技术对其进行改进,采用C-D生产函数扩展模型,揭示了GDP和能源消费增长之间的内在比例关系。通过对能源需求预测方法的比较,发现采用能源消费弹性系数法用于测算和预测能源消费的增长率比较理想,由此测算了未来几年的能源消费量。得出结论,为了可持续发展的需要,一是必须实行节能降耗;二是调整能源消费结构;三是加大对不可再生能源的替代能源的科研开发,有序发展清洁能源。

Research of Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Energy Demand Forecast on China

According to the historical data which is improved by the grey technique,and the application of the C-D production function extended model,this paper reveals there is an intrinsic proportional relationship between GDP and the growth of energy consumption.Through the comparison among the energy demand forecast approaches,it shows that the energy consumption elastic coefficient method is comparatively ideal in surveying and forecasting the rising rate of energy consumption,from which the quantity of the energ...