| Abstract: | We quantitatively assess the main sources of fertility fluctuations in China and find that only preference ships, involving education, health care and the employment and social status of women, can generate a statistically significant long-run decline in fertility growth. However, the government's enforcement power can explain some short-run movements infertility. To examine the effect of key variables, we modify a growth model with endogenous fertility to represent the average rural household's fertility decisions under government imposed constraints. The model provides the structure necessary to econometrically identify shocks to government enforcement ability, agricultural output and preferences toward fertility. |
