舆情传播中考虑公众风险感知的多资源流应急优化调度

针对舆情传播背景下应急资源调度问题的特殊性,首先运用多案例分析进行了具体描述。然后,考虑到公众的有限理性,运用前景理论对其风险感知行为进行了刻画,并给出了保留供应率的定义。进一步,运用模糊理论来刻画公众追溯以往的资源供应状况,在同时考虑到供应点和配送中心的能力扩充基础上,构建了多种类资源应急优化调度的0-1混合整数非线性模糊规划模型。最后,以2011年东日本大地震事件为例验证了理论研究的有效性,并考查了决策者在控制公众风险感知中的偏好行为对最优调度方案的影响。

Emergency Optimal Scheduling of Multi-resource Flow Considering the Public's Risk Perception in Public Opinion Propagation

According to the particularity of emergency resource scheduling problem under the background of possible panic buying behavior resulted from public opinion propagation, the specific characteristics of the emergency resource scheduling problem are firstly described and analyzed by applying the approach of multi-case study. The results show that this problem is an optimal scheduling problem characterized by capacity expansion, multi-supply points, multi-distribution centers, multi-demand points, and multi-resource flows. Then, through considering the public's bounded rationality, the public's risk perception behavior is described, and the reservation supply rate is defined based on prospect theory to represent the preferential behavior of decision-makers when managing the public's risk perception behavior. Next, supply condition of resources of the public recalled is denoted using fuzzy theory. In addition, taking into account the capacity expansion of supply points and distribution centers simultaneously, a 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear fuzzy programming model (0-1MINFPM) for emergency optimal scheduling of multi-resource flows is proposed. Finally, The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 is taken as an example to verify the validity of this study and test the influence of decision-makers' preferential behavior on optimal scheduling scheme. The studies find that the emergency resource scheduling system is likely to has the different minimum total costs, the different optimal capacity expansion plans and the different optimal scheduling results under the different preferential behaviors of decision-makers.