中国风电固定上网电价政策的实物期权理论与实证分析

本文使用实物期权方法研究中国目前实施的风电固定上网电价政策。首先说明风电项目投资的实物期权原理,并建立风电固定上网电价政策实物期权模型。然后,从理论上证明了风电最优投资电价与上网电价波动率成正比(固定上网电价理论依据,即政府为了最大限度激励投资者,使得上网电价波动率等于0);最优投资电价与上网电价期望增长率成正比(固定上网电价调整理论依据)。最后,选取河北张北油篓沟元山子风电场工程项目进行实证分析,通过上网电价期望增长率调整的数值分析得到中国风电上网电价平均每年降低幅度应该为1%左右。本文为我国可再生能源电价调整提供参考。

Real Option Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Feed-in-tariff (FIT) Policy of Wind Electricity in China

In this paper, the wind electricity policy of Feed-in-tariff (FIT) implemented in China is studied by the optimal investment decision theory in real option theory.First, the real option theory of the investment of wind electricity project is analyzed, and then the real option model of FIT policy is established.Then, from the real option model of FIT policy, the theoretical proof that both volatility rate and expected growth rate of FIT are proportional to the critical value of FIT of wind electricity (optimal investment price) is given, which is the theoretical evidence and adjustment evidence of FIT policy, and it is the fixed FIT when the volatility rate of electricity price is equal to zero.In order to incentive investors to invest, governments should decrease the volatility rate and expected growth rate of FIT.Finally, empirical analysis is made by the Yuanshanzi wind electricity project in Hebei province; the conclusion is drawn that the wind electricity price should be decreased by about 1% every year.Our research results can be referenced by the other renewable energy electricity.