物流业能源消费的替代效用和城镇化效用研究

在探讨城镇化进程及物流业能源消费现状的基础上，根据柯布——道格拉斯生产函数，将能源要素进行单列，提出了物流业能源需求理论，对物流业能源消费的替代效用和城镇化效用进行了理论分析。然后，建立计量方程并进行了参数估计。实证结果表明，物流业电力消费能显著替代汽柴油消费，减轻了其对汽柴油的依赖。城镇化、物流路网增长、内贸发展也显著地促进了物流业汽柴油消费。案例研究表明，鉴于客户对于物流环保与低碳的高要求，杭州汤氏物流有限公司总部2014年初以来就全部使用电动叉车替代柴油叉车，较好地实现了电力消费替代柴油消费，即环保又节省了成本。建议政府：改善物流业能源消费结构，走低能耗之路；建议大力推广电动车辆应用于物流业中；建议合理推进城镇化的发展并加强内外贸与物流业的协同发展。

Research on Substitution Effect and Urbanization Effect on Energy Consumption of the Logistics Industry

The logistics industry acts as a complex service industry, and recently it attracts attention of all levels of government. Based on the discussion for urbanization process and energy consumption of the logistics industry, by using the Cobb-Douglas production function, in which energy is as an input row, an energy demand theory is proposed in this paper. It shows the energy inputs willingness of the logistics industry changed with the price of various types of inputs and outputs. And then, a theoretical analysis is made for the substitution effect and urbanization effect on energy consumption of the logistics industry. There has no similar studies from this point of view before. From the view point of the substitution effect, because there exist numerous types of energy in the logistics industry, and the logistics industry relies on gasoline, diesel fuel and electricity, there are alternatives between the individual energy utility. From the viewpoint of energy input and other initial input factors, there is also an alternative relationship between capital, labor and energy. From the viewpoint of the urbanization effect, the logistics industry will increase energy consumption because of transfer of rural population to urban areas. Then, an econometrics equation is established and corresponding parameter estimation is finished. The panel data is used and fixed effect estimations are done. The empirical results show that the electricity consumption of the logistics industry can significantly substitute for gasoline and diesel consumption, and then reduce the dependence on gasoline and diesel oil. The process of urbanization, the logistics network and domestic trade development also can promote gasoline and diesel consumption of the logistics industry. Case studies show that, in view of the customer for the logistics of environmental protection and low-carbon high demand, Hangzhou Tangshi logistics headquarters Ltd has replaced diesel forklifts by the use of electric forklifts since early 2014 because electric power consumption can achieve a better alternative to diesel consumption, namely can achieve environmental protection and cost savings, and also, the electric forklifts are more friendly to the environment than the diesel forklifts, and the electric forklifts have lower maintenance cost than the diesel forklifts, and the electric forklifts have lower day running cost than the electric forklift, and the electric forklifts have longer life than the diesel forklifts. Suggestions: the governments should improve the energy consumption structure of the logistics industry in order to go on a low energy consumption of the road; the governments should promote the application of electric cars in the logistics industry; the governments should reasonably promote the urbanization development and strengthen the collaborative development of internal and foreign trade and the logistics industry. Taking measures to further promote energy-saving technology in the logistics industry and logistics enterprises to strengthen energy-saving awareness, which has positive implications for the logistics industry to reduce energy consumption.