基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究

随着经济的快速发展,环境问题日益严重,京津冀地区低碳协同发展成为关注的焦点。碳排放权交易机制作为一种市场驱动的碳减排政策,能有效地减缓气候变化,降低二氧化碳排放量。对此,本文基于系统动力学,构建京津冀碳排放交易政策仿真模型,探索不同的碳交易机制设计对京津冀地区经济和环境的影响。实证研究结果表明:(1)总体上,碳交易机制能有效地促进京津冀地区的碳减排进程,即使对经济会产生微小的负向冲击;(2)在碳交易机制设计方面,减少碳配额总量,减少免费配额发放,以及提高碳交易价格均会增大碳减排力度,并同时加剧对经济的抑制作用。

The Simulation of Carbon Emission Trading System in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: An Analysis Based on System Dynamics

With the rapid economic development, environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become an increasingly challenging problem, and low-carbon economy development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has aroused a wide attention. As a market-driven mitigation tool, carbon emission trading (CET) can effectively address the climate change and reduce carbon emissions. Based on system dynamics, a CET simulation model considering four sub-systems, i.e., economy, energy, environment, and CET policy, together with their interactive relationships is constructed to capture the impact of CET policy on economy and environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei system. To study the impact of CET, a baseline case without CET policy and some CET simulation cases with different total allocations, free emissions allocations and carbon prices are set. Empirical results indicate that (1) Generally, CET can effectively promote carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, even leading to a somewhat negative impact on economy, and (2) less total carbon allowances, less free quotas and higher carbon trading price will consistently enhance the carbon reduction effect, and in the meantime aggravate the impact in economy. The results also provided the effectiveness of the proposed model for capturing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei CET system, which can provide helpful supports for the management department in CET design and the related decision making.