竞争环境下新创企业产量柔性技术战略决策研究

考虑新创企业与成熟企业相互竞争，重点研究竞争环境下，两企业的产量柔性技术选择及产能投资决策。首先分析了四种不同策略组合下两企业的最优产能决策、新创企业的最大生存概率以及成熟企业的最大利润；然后用传统博弈论的方法得出了二者的竞争均衡，并分析影响两企业产量柔性战略决策的因素；最后用数值实验进行验证。研究结果表明：在竞争中，新创企业更加关注成本因素，倾向于选择成本较小的无柔性技术；成熟企业对市场需求的波动更为敏感，当市场需求波动较大时，选择产量柔性技术能提高其收益；当产量柔性技术单位产量调整成本较大时，选择无柔性技术对两企业更为有利。

Strategic Volume Flexible Technology Decision of Startups under Competitive Setting

As the main body of entrepreneurial activities, startups face larger demand uncertainty and market competition, and thus need to undertake greater bankruptcy risk. They concern more about survival rather than growth during the operations. Volume flexible technology choice is one of the most important operational decisions of startups, which can help them to reduce the mismatch between supply and demand, and enhance their competitiveness. It also has a higher capacity cost, which leads to a higher investment cost and bankruptcy risk. So, the startups need to weigh the advantages against the disadvantages of volume flexibility. In this paper, the volume flexible technology decision of the startup is analyzed under competitive setting. Using the game theory the model in which a startup company and an established firm engage in output competition in the market is first built. Both of them can choose volume flexible technology or traditional technology. The startup company maximize its survival probability while the established firm maximizes its profit. Then it obtains the optimal capacity investment decisions of the 2 firms, the optimal survival probability of the startup, and the optimal profit of the established firm under different competitive strategies. Nash equilibrium is used to obtain the equilibrium technology choice of the 2 firms. Finally, it conducts a numerical experimentation to analyze the factors that influence the equilibrium strategies of the two firms. The result shows that under competitive setting, the startup company pays more attention to the cost factor, is more likely to choose non-flexible technology, which has a lower cost than the volume flexible technology. However, the established firm is more sensitive to the demand variance, will choose volume flexible technology when the demand variance is high. As the frictional cost of the volume flexible technology increase, both of them prefer non-flexible technology.