Minorities to the left: ethno-linguistic identification and vote in Europe

This paper aims at analysing the influence of ethnic and linguistic identities on voting preferences in the left–right ideological scale. Its innovative contribution relays on studying minorities’ voting preferences across 23 European nations, using as dependent variable a novel measurement which combines past voting declaration and experts’ numerical definition on political parties (Chapel Hill Experts Survey). By applying multilevel regression techniques, individual and contextual determinants of voting behaviour are identified, focusing on minorities’ leftist preferences. The results show how ethnic and linguistic identities affect voters’ behaviour, although this impact varies depending on how the left–right dimension is defined (economy or social values) and on some minorities’ characteristics. In addition, the use of hierarchical analysis shows how country-level fractionalisation (ethnic and linguistic) affects individual preferences beyond personal ethno-linguistic identifications.