门槛效应、经济增长与环境质量

根据“环境库兹涅茨假说”，随着经济的增长，环境质量先恶化后改善，变化过程中存在着所谓的“门槛效应”。本文采用Hansen（2000）提出的“门槛回归”方法，以108个国家和地区作为横截面数据，对影响“环境库兹涅茨曲线”的多个因素进行了门槛效应分析。结果表明：一个国家或地区的收入水平、工业发展水平和贸易开放程度都存在着“门槛效应”。我们发现，当贸易开放程度作为门槛变量时，可将“低收入-高工业”的国家分成两组。而在“低收入-低工业”、“高收入-高工业”和“高收入-低工业”的国家和地区中不再有“门槛效应”的存在。

Threshold Effect, Economic Growth and Environmental Quality

According to Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC), environmental quality is degraded firstly in economic growth and then is improved for a country or region. This paper, using 108 countries and regions’ panel data, analyzes EKC multi-factors’ threshold effect by Hansen’s method (2000). We find that threshold effect contemporarily appears in national income level, industrial growth level and international trade openness. The low income-high level industry nations can be divided into two groups when international trade is regarded as a threshold effect, meanwhile there is no threshold effect in low income-low level industry, high income-high level industry or high income-low level industry nations and regions.