新时代中国能源经济预测与展望

习总书记在“十九大”报告中指出，中国社会主要矛盾已经转变，能源经济在快速发展的同时也逐渐凸显出了这种矛盾。2018年正值改革开放40周年，各方面改革有望继续深化，能源行业快速发展的同时也将面临转型压力。从不平衡和不充分的角度阐述能源经济发展的现状，并对地区能源消费进行预测，通过情景分析和泰尔指数探讨“十九大”后新时代能源经济发展路径。随着供给侧改革和产业结构调整的不断深化，中国能源消费总量增速放缓，能源结构日趋完善。基准情境下，2017—2022年能源消费总量预计维持小幅增长态势，非化石能源占比在2022年预计达到16.2%以上。根据经济和能源泰尔指数预测结果，2022年与2017年相比，总体经济发展的不平衡状况没有进一步加剧，经济不平衡将主要体现在东部地区；能源不平衡状况将会进一步加剧，能源的不平衡性主要表现在西部地区。建议充分考虑各地区经济发展的客观禀赋差异，布局西部多方位发展。

The Forecasting and Prospects of China's Energy Economy in the New Era

In the 19th CPC National Congress,President Xi pointed out that major social contradictions in China have been changed. Similar contradictions in energy economy were also highlighted. Using Scenario analysis and Theil index analysis,this paper analyzes the current situation of energy economy development from the perspective of imbalance and inadequacy,forecasts regional energy consumption from 2018 to 2022,and discusses new direction of energy development after the 19th CPC. With the reform of supply-side structure and adjustment of industrial structure,the speed of growth in total energy consumption slowed down. In the baseline scenario,the total energy consumption in 2018-2022 is expected to increase slightly and the share of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to exceed 16.2% in 2022. Comparing to the results of Theil Index in the economy and energy in 2017,the overall economic imbalance in 2022 will not significantly increase,while the energy imbalance in 2022 will be further increased. Based on the results,the level of economic imbalance will rise mainly in the eastern region,while the increase in the imbalance of regional energy consumption would be mainly observed in the west. Finally,it is suggested that,to reduce the gaps in economic development and energy consumption across regions,more attention should be paid to the differences of endowments in different regions and try to accelerate economic and social development in the western region.