2018年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

2017年，随着世界经济的复苏和OPEC主导的限产协定效果的显现，下半年国际原油市场持续攀升。2018年的油价将延续2017年的走势。从全球经济形势、供需基本面因素、美元汇率和地缘政治风险等方面，对2018年油价走势进行了发展态势展望和预测分析。综合考虑影响油价涨跌正负效应，在当前全球经济形势、国际原油供给和油价影响因素态势发展下，2018年油价将会相对稳定，全年或将出现阶段性大幅度涨跌，但是整体还将保持上升态势，预计Brent、WTI原油均价将会达到54~64美元/桶和52~62美元/桶。

International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2018

In 2017,with the recovery of the world economy and the effect of the reduction agreement led by OPEC,the international crude oil market continued to rise in the second half of the year. In 2018,oil prices will continue the trend of 2017. This article forecasts and analyzes the development of oil price trend in 2018 from the perspective of the global economic situation,fundamentals on supply and demand,the dollar exchange rate,geopolitical risks and so on. Taking into account the positive and negative effects of oil price fluctuations,with the situation of the current global economic situation,international crude oil supply and oil price developments,oil prices will be relatively stable in 2018,and there will be a sharp ups and downs in the whole year or so. However,as a whole,it will maintain the upward trend. It is estimated that average crude oil price in Brent and WTI will reach 54~64 USD/barrel and 52~62 USD/barrel.