| 四川省耕地资源变化与经济增长的计量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚寿福. 四川省耕地资源变化与经济增长的计量分析[J]. 四川理工学院学报(社会科学版), 2011, 26(3): 110-113 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚寿福 |
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| 作者单位： | 西华大学,经济与贸易学院,成都610039 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省教育厅资助项目，西华大学人才引进基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用时间序列分析方法,采用四川省1978～2009年的耕地资源、GDP数据对四川省耕地面积与经济增长之间的关系进行了定量分析。结果表明,四川耕地面积与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,四川GDP增长1%,将导致耕地面积减少0.021%,但当耕地面积减少偏离均衡太大时,会有一个强有力的修正行为,误差修正系数为-1.2024。研究表明,耕地面积会趋于达到长期均衡状态,但这种平衡的获得需要政府部门进一步加强对耕地的保护,特别是要加强对建设占用耕地的监督和管理。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地资源 经济增长 计量分析 协整关系 |
The Econometric Analysis of Relationship between Cultivated Land Changes and Economic Growth in Sichuan Province |
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| YAO Shou-fu. The Econometric Analysis of Relationship between Cultivated Land Changes and Economic Growth in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Sichuau University of Science & Engineering:Social Sciences Edition, 2011, 26(3): 110-113 |
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| Authors: | YAO Shou-fu |
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| Affiliation: | YAO Shou-fu(School of Economic and Trade,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Time Series Analysis method was applied to analyze the Relationship between cultivated land resources and GDP in Sichuan province,based on the statistics from 1978 to 2009.And got a long-term equilibrium model and ECM model,which shows that the GDP increases by 1% will lead to arable land decrease 0.021%.But when the deviation from the long-run equilibrium of cultivated land area is too large,there will be a modified act,error correction coefficient is-1.2024.The results show that arable land would tend... |
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| Keywords: | cultivated land resource economic growth econometric analysis cointegration relationship |
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