科技创新能力、区域异质性与中国房价——基于31个省份的实证研究

高房价遏制了科技创新能力,但科技创新能力的提升对房价的推高作用尚未明确。以此为新视角的探究,首先根据经济学理论推演研究假设,而后构建中国31个省份2006年至2017年间的科技创新能力和房价的混合面板数据,采用因子分析法修正科技创新能力指标体系,选用Ward法进行区域异质性分析,进一步结合区域异质性建立多元线性计量模型分析了科技创新能力对房价的影响因素和传导机制。研究发现：从全国范围看,科技创新能力显著推高了房价,主要原因是科技投入中R&D人数的显著增加,而科技创新能力的产出和研发经费投入的正向影响较小;R&D人数的传导机制是通过直接效应和部分中介效应正向影响房价;考虑区域异质性,R&D人数增加在各省份均推高了房价,且科技创新能力非发达区域效应更大;在科技创新能力发达的7个省份中,R&D人员出现"聚集效应",其他省份出现"溢出效应"。

Sci-technological innovation ability, regional heterogeneity and housing price in China: An empirical study on 31 provinces in China

This paper innovatively studies whether the high housing prices have been pushed up by the development of sci-technological innovation ability. 310 samples of mixed panel databases are constructed by sci-technological innovation ability and housing price in 31 provinces of China from 2006 to 2017.The factor analysis method is used to revise the index system of sci-technological innovation ability. The Ward method is used to analyze regional heterogeneity. The multi-factor linear econometric model is used to empirically analyze the impact of sci-technological innovation ability on housing prices based on regional heterogeneity. Conclusions are drawn as follows:1) Nationwide, sci-technological innovation ability has significantly increased housing prices. The main reason is that the number of R&D people has significantly increased, while the output of sci-technological innovation ability and R&D funds have a little positive impact. 2) The transmission mechanism of R&D population has a positive impact on housing prices through direct effect and partial mediation effect. 3)Considering regional heterogeneity, the increase of R&D population in all provinces also has pushed up housing prices, and the undeveloped regions have greater effects on housing prices. 4) In the seven provinces with developed sci-technological innovation ability, R&D personnel have "aggregation effect" and other provinces have "spillover effect".