论中,日,美经济发展趋向

本文就国家提出到。十一世纪５０年代，使我国的总体经济水平达到或超过世界中等发达国家的第三步战略规划，利用“直线外推法”求出中、日、美三国的国民生产总值相等时所用的时间；三国每年增加产值相等时所用的时间；三国人均产值相等时所用的时间；并结合发展趋势图来分析这一国策的科学性和可能性。

ON THE TREND OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA,JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES

This article deals with the target of the third stage of China's state strategic plan,inwhich it is planned that the general economic level in China should be raised so as to equal orexceed that of medium developed countries in the world in the fifties of the 21st century.Through the use of "linear extrapolation",following statistics are obtained: 1. Time neededfor China,Japan and USA to have the same GNP; 2. Time needed for these three countries tohave the same yearly increase of GNP;3. Time needed for these three countries to have thesame GNP per capita. With the application of a trend chart,the science-orientation and thefeasibility of the state strategic plan have been analyzed.