江苏省产业结构变动对经济增长影响的实证分析

产业结构及其变动与经济增长相互依赖。产业结构必须与经济发展水平相适应,合理的产业结构会促进经济向更高的水平发展。以1952年以来的统计数据来描述江苏产业结构变化的历程,运用灰色理论和统计学理论就江苏省产业结构变动与经济增长的相互关系及其对国民经济增长的影响效果进行实证分析。结果表明产业结构变动是影响经济增长的重要因素,但近年来产业结构的变动对经济增长的促进作用减弱,说明各产业发展过程中存在的结构性失衡及产业结构变动的不合理在一定程度上影响了江苏经济的发展。

Impact of Jiangsu's Industrial Structure Adjustment on Economic Growth

Industrial structure and economic growth are interdependent. Industrial structure must be adapted to the level of economic growth and a reasonable industrial structure will promote economy to a higher level. Based on the statistical figures of the industrial adjustment of Jiangsu Province since 1952, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth of Jiangsu Province in terms of the theory of grey system and statistics. It shows that industrial adjustment is an important contributor to the economic development. And the weakening of the impact on the part of industrial restructuring on economic growth in the recent years in Jiangsu Province shows that the imbalance and the unreasonable industrial structure have a passive influence on the economic growth.