碳减排约束下我国产业结构变迁的路径选择

建立我国29个省份1995—2010年的面板数据模型,从产业结构合理化和高级化两个维度实证研究产业结构变迁对碳排放强度的影响。从全国范围来看,产业结构的合理化和高级化均对碳排放强度有显著影响。具体而言,东部地区的产业结构高级化有助于碳减排目标的实现,而中西部地区则是产业结构合理化对碳减排有明显作用。因此,各地区应该因地制宜选择产业结构变迁的路径,积极推进碳排放交易市场建设和碳排放指标的分解。

The Path Selection of China's Industrial Structure under the Constraint of Carbon Emissions

This article studies what effects the changes of industrial structure have on carbon intensity through the establishment of a panel data model of 29 provinces in China from 1995 to 2010 in the rationalization and high-class of the industrial structures. Nationwide, the rationalization and high-class of the industrial structure have significant impacts on the intensity of carbon emissions; specifically, the industrial high-class structure in the east contributes to carbon emission reduction goals, while in the central and western regions industry rationalization of industrial structure plays a significant role in carbon emission reduction. Therefore, this article suggests that different regions choose the paths of changing industrial structure according to local conditions, and actively promote the construction of carbon emission trading market and the decomposition of carbon emission targets.