Privatization, provision, and targeting: Trends and policy implications for social security in the United States

This paper examines several important trends in the changing structure of social security in the United States and their impact on the elderly in different income groups. These trends involve the shifting public/private mix of retirement income, the declining replacement rates of public benefits, and reforms for targeting benefits by age. An analysis of these trends suggests that (a) social security will provide declining economic support for those most in need; (b) middle- and upper-income groups will have a diminished stake in social security, reducing the programme's political base of support; (c) increasing reliance on occupational pensions will heighten the need for greater public regulation of private schemes; (d) an unplanned two-tiered system of pensions will emerge, with the first tier consisting of a whittled-down version of social security to provide a predominant source of retirement income for low-income wage earners and the second tier consisting of private pensions for middle- and upper-income groups.