上海服务业“结构奖赏”与“结构惩罚”效应分析

2012年，上海第三产业增加值占GDP比重首超60％，达到服务经济的国际标准。借助shift—share方法对2003-2012年上海第三产业劳动生产率变动进行分解得出：“结构奖赏”和“结构负担”假说并存，且前者效应已高于后者，表明结构转换有助于提升劳动生产率，但力度有限；各行业内部劳动生产率的提升才是上海第三产业劳动生产率提升的主体。上海调整第三产业结构的前提是各行业能按自身发展规律协调发展，即须在发展中实现结构转换，而非片面追求结构调整。

Structure Bonus or Structure Burden -An Empirical Analysis of the Tertiary Industry of Shanghai

The ratio of the add-value of tertiary industry to total GDP in Shanghai is above 60% and satisfies the international standard of services economy in 2012. By decomposing the labor productive variation of tertiary industry of Shanghai with the shift-share model, it is concluded structural bonus and structural burden both exist, and the improvement of sectors1labor productivity is the mainstay of the improvement of the labor productivity of tertiary industry, and the effect of structural burden overpasses the structural bonus, and the structure adjustment was adverse to the improvement of total labor productivity. It is necessary for Shanghai to adjust tertiary industry structure on the basis of the harmonious development of all subdivided industries according to the respective development laws, namely to adjust structure in the development.