中国外资引入与进出口贸易的政策效应——经济计量检验与分析

经济增长理论的最新研究成果表明，开放本国经济，通过国际贸易不仅可以促进知识在世界范围迅速积累，而且通过新技术的引进可以提高不发达国家的生产效率；同时，由于直接引进新技术而节约了本国的研究与开发经费，也间接增加了国内的资本积累。这两方面的效应可以使不发达国家的经济发展更快，并在较短的时期内缩短与发达国家的差距。我国是一个发展中的大国，经济学家关于经济增长的最新理论，同样可以用来解释我国的经济发展现实。1978年以来，我国实行市场化取向的经济改革，与此同时实行对外开放政策，对外开放的了领域由最早的4个经济特区，14个沿海港口城市逐渐向内地拓展，目前已初步形成了“沿海——沿边——沿江——内陆地区”全方位多层次对外开放的格局，利用国内国外两种资源、两个市场、大大增强了中国经济的增长活力，加快了经济发展的进程。本文依据统计资料，对我国对外开放政策的效应进行经济计量检验与分析，以期从中得到一些有益的启示。

Policy Effect of Foreign Capital Inflow and International Trade Econometric Test and Analysis

Based on new growth theory and by building econometric model, the paper analyses the policy effect of opening to outside the world from the provincial cross-section data and time series. The author holds that foreign capital inflow has made up the shortage of fund in the development of national economy and promoted economic high growth in our country. Besides, the policy opening to outside the world has brought the evident expansion of Chinese foreign trade during the past over ten years and enhanced the importance of foreign trade in national economy. At present, export demand become an important factor in Chinese economic growth.