基于政府调控的绿色智慧港口转型演化及扩散研究

港口在推动全球经济贸易的同时给全球海洋和大气带来严重污染，港口发展受到各国政府、国际组织等应对气候变化、环境保护相关政策措施的约束与影响，港口发展面临转型。本研究基于政府和港口的双视角，考虑绿色智慧港口建设成本及政府调控影响，对政府港口双方的决策行为进行演化博弈分析，探索政府调控下的绿色智慧港口建设演化路径，挖掘绿色智慧港口建设的主要推动因素，刻画二者在绿色智慧港口转型中相互制约、共存共荣的关系。借鉴Lotka-Volterra模型测度绿色智慧港口发展扩散趋势，通过模拟政府调控力度刻画绿色智慧港口与普通港口的扩散形势变化，反映绿色智慧港口演化需求，揭示绿色智慧港口在无政府调控下发展的局限性，印证了政府调控对于绿色智慧港口转型的推动机制。研究结果表明：在政府没有介入港口转型时，港口总是会向普通港口方向发展；当政府开始对港口转型进行调控时，绿色智慧港口发展竞争力加强、建设比率明显提高。绿色智慧港口发展速度与政府调控的强度是正相关关系，政府调控在绿色智慧港口转型不同阶段促进能力不同，随着政府调控力度的改变，绿色智慧港口的市场竞争力也持续变化，最终演化为政府和港口都满意的结果。

Study on the Evolutionary Game and Diffusion of Green Smart Port Construction under Government Regulation

While promoting global economic and trade, ports have brought serious pollution to the global oceans and the atmosphere, and in the meantime a new technological and industrial revolutions are being pushed to their zenith. To this end, the port is facing green reform and smart reform. In the process of port reform, government support is undoubtedly very important, but the importance of government support and the evolutionary path in port reform still need us to explore. In addition, the strength of government support needs to be studied. Based on the dual perspectives of the government and the port, considering the cost of green smart port construction and the influence of government regulation, evolutionary game analysis is performed on the decision-making behavior of both sides of the government and the port, and the evolutionary path of green smart port construction is explored under the government regulation. The main driving factors of green smart port construction are also excavated, and the mutual restriction and coexistence relationship between the government and the port are depicted in the transformation of green smart port. Furthermore, Lotka Volterra model is used for reference to measure the diffusion trend of green smart port, the diffusion situation change of green smart port and ordinary port is depicted by simulating the government’s regulation and control, and the evolution demand of green smart port is reflected, and the limitations of green smart port under the non-government regulation and control are revealed, and the role of government regulation is confirmed in promoting the development of green smart port.