多元化集成模式下交通基础设施建设融资风险识别研究

从单一模式向多元化集成模式转变已成为新形势下拓宽交通基础设施建设融资渠道的必然选择，在规避单一模式局限、形成多元模式优势合力的同时，也加剧了融资不确定性和复杂性，从而对融资风险识别提出了更高的要求。综合考虑多元化集成模式下交通基础设施建设融资风险的多源性、关联性、模糊性、随机性等典型表征，设计了与典型表征相匹配的融资风险识别框架，并构建了融资风险识别两阶段模型。在该模型中，明确了融资风险因素确定流程和维度划分规则，并提出了基于随机二元语义DEMATEL的风险因素关联分析方法进行融资风险因素的研判与诊断。最后，以“PPP+ABS”模式下大成西黄河大桥收益权计划为例开展了计算实验，验证了所构建模型的有效性，并给出了融资风险应对与化解的启示与建议。研究成果能够为相关利益主体明晰融资风险因素构成、研判融资风险因素影响力、诊断融资风险因素可控性、有效应对与化解融资风险提供系统性解决方案。

Study on Identification of Financing Risks for Transport Infrastructure Construction under a Pluralistic Integrated Mode

The transition from a single mode to a pluralistic integrated mode has become an inevitable choice to broaden the financing channels for transport infrastructure construction under the current new situation. The pluralistic integrated mode can avoid the limitations of a single mode and form the combined strengths of multiple modes. Nevertheless, it also increases the uncertainty and complexity of financing, which puts forward the higher requirements for financing risk identification.