国内国际双循环的测度方法及我国双循环格局演变趋势分析

面对复杂的社会经济发展形势，我国提出加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。基于世界投入产出模型，本文提出以中国经济对本国最终需求依存度和对国外最终需求依存度衡量中国参与国内循环、国际循环的相对程度；并从整体、分最终需求、分部门等角度定量分析了我国参与国内国际循环程度的变化趋势。结果发现，加入WTO后，我国经济参与国际循环的程度明显提升，2006年达到峰值，2007年后，我国经济国际循环参与程度开始下降。分不同最终需求看，我国经济在国际循环中的需求结构保持稳定，对国内投资的依存度持续上升，对国内消费的依存度先下降后缓慢上升。分部门看，不同产业参与国内循环、国际循环的程度及变化趋势具有异质性。

The Measurement and Trend Analysis of Domestic and International Dural Circulation

Entering a new stage of development, China will quicken its pace in fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.The foundational question is the measurement of the relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations. The added value dependence on domestic final demand and foreign final demand is introduced as an indicator of the relative degree of participation in the domestic and international circulations. Based on the World Input-Output Tables from WIOD, the relative level and evolution trend of relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations in China from 2000 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. In addition, the comparative analysis is carried out between different countries and different sectors.