人口老龄化、健康投资与经济增长——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

基于2000—2016年我国31个省（市、自治区）的省级面板数据，利用差分GMM估计方法实证分析了人口老龄化与健康投资对经济增长的影响。研究发现：健康投资（包括政府和个人）对经济增长产生了显著的促进作用，人口老龄化则对我国经济增长产生了显著的负向影响。不论是增加政府还是个人健康投资，均能有效削弱人口老龄化带来的负向经济影响，但健康投资对经济增长的促进作用也会随人口老龄化程度的加深而被弱化。因此，应继续加大政府对健康保障领域的财政投入，完善老年健康服务体系和健康保障制度，同时鼓励和引导个人健康投资，以实现经济增长与健康老龄化的双重平衡。

Population Aging,Health Investment and Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period of 2000—2016，using DIF-GMM,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and health investment on economic growth.It is found that health investment (including government and individuals) has a significantly promoting effect on economic growth,while population aging has a significantly negative impact on China's economic growth.Whether it is to increase government or personal health investment,it can effectively weaken the negative economic impact of population aging,but the role of health investment in promoting economic growth will also be weakened with the deepening of population aging.Therefore,we should continue to increase government financial investment in the field of health security,improve the health service system and health security system for the elderly,and encourage and guide individuals to attach importance to health investment in order to achieve a dual balance between economic growth and healthy aging.