金融市场中羊群行为的模拟研究及启示

本文在Bikhchandani,Hirshleifer和Welch的羊群行为模型(BHW)的基础上,从实验经济学的角度对金融市场中的羊群行为和信息瀑布进行实验模拟研究,并提出相关的政策建议。本文主要进行了三组实验,并对投资者决策的有效性和实验过程中的计数偏差、现状偏差和代表性偏差进行了考察。实验结果显示,在信息不对称的情况下,很可能会发生信息瀑布和羊群行为。信息因素对羊群行为的产生有重要的影响。在信息模糊和信息不完全的情况下,投资者决策的有效性会大幅度地降低,并伴随着更多的非理性的决策行为。

Herd Behavior in Financial Markets:An Experimental Study and Policy Implications

This paper studies herd behaviors and information cascades in financial market from the perspective of experimental economics.The results show that information plays a critical role in herd behaviors.Under information asymmetry,herd behaviors are very likely to occur.Moreover,as information is becoming more ambiguous and incomplete,the efficiency of the investors' decisions is reducing more rapidly and more irrational behaviors will occur.