中国服务贸易进口技术溢出效应的实证研究：1985-2008

文章运用协整理论与向量误差修正模型（VECM），对中国1985—2008年的服务贸易进口与技术进步的关系进行了实证分析，以验证服务贸易进口是否存在技术溢出效应。实证结果显示，中国服务贸易进口存在技术溢出效应，它与技术进步之间存在长期稳定的正向关系。服务贸易进口是技术进步的Granger原因，但技术进步不是服务贸易进口的Granger原因；VECM显示，从短期来看，二者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快，服务贸易进口的短期波动对我国技术进步的影响非常显著。

An Empirical Study on the Technology Spillover Effect of Services Imports in China:1985-2008

In accordance with the theory of co - integration and the error correction model, this paper discusses the relationship between services imports and technological progress in China based on the data from 1985 to 2008, to test the technology spillover effect of services imports. The result shows that there exists a tong- term stable equilibrium relationship between them, and services imports are a unidirectional Granger causality of technological progress. VEC model shows that in the short - run, the speed of the correction is very quick from the short fluctuation to long - term equilibrium, and the effect of the import fluctuation on technological progress fluctuation is significant.