Comparisons of search designs using search probabilities

Search designs are considered for searching and estimating one nonzero interaction from the two and three factor interactions under the search linear model. We compare three 12-run search designs D1, D2, and D3, and three 11-run search designs D4, D5, and D6, for a 2⁴ factorial experiment. Designs D2 and D3 are orthogonal arrays of strength 2, D1 and D4 are balanced arrays of full strength, D5 is a balanced array of strength 2, and D6 is obtained from D3 by deleting the duplicate run. Designs D4 and D5 are also obtained by deleting a run from D1 and D2, respectively. Balanced arrays and orthogonal arrays are commonly used factorial designs in scientific experiments. “Search probabilities” are calculated for the comparison of search designs. Three criteria based on search probabilities are presented to determine the design which is most likely to identify the nonzero interaction. The calculation of these search probabilities depends on an unknown parameter ρ which has a signal-to-noise ratio form. For a given value of ρ, Criteria I and II are newly proposed in this paper and Criteria III is given in Shirakura et al. (Ann. Statist. 24 (6) (1996) 2560). We generalize Criteria I–III for all values of ρ so that the comparison of search designs can be made without requiring a specific value of ρ. We have developed simplified methods for comparing designs under these three criteria for all values of ρ. We demonstrate, under all three criteria, that the balanced array D1 is more likely to identify the nonzero interaction than the orthogonal arrays D2 and D3, and the design D4 is more likely to identify the nonzero interaction than the designs D5 and D6.The methods of comparing designs developed in this paper are applicable to other factorial experiments for searching one nonzero interaction of any order.