| 新兴技术不确定性的起源及应对方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾磊,石忠国,李天柱.新兴技术不确定性的起源及应对方法[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,9(2):34-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾磊 石忠国 李天柱 |
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| 作者单位： | 电子科技大学,成都,610054;电子科技大学,成都,610054;电子科技大学,成都,610054 |
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| 摘 要： | 人的有限理性与认知风险是产生新兴技术不确定性的根本原因,通过新兴技术活动的放大,新兴技术的不确定性最终体现在新兴技术的市场、技术、管理等多个方面.要从组织学习、运用实物期权思维、建设新型组织、优化网络结构、关注市场以及应用情景规划法等方面着手寻找应对新兴技术不确定性的方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 新兴技术 不确定性 有限理性 认知风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-8105(2007)02-0034-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年11月4日 |
The Origin and Approach of Uncertainty of Emerging Technology |
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| ZENG Lei,SHI Zhong-guo,LI Tian-zhu.The Origin and Approach of Uncertainty of Emerging Technology[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition),2007,9(2):34-38. |
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| Authors: | ZENG Lei SHI Zhong-guo LI Tian-zhu |
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| Institution: | Univ.of Elec.Sci.& Tech.of China Chengdu 610054 China |
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| Abstract: | Bounded rationality and perceived risk are the radical reasons of the uncertainty of emerging technologies.Through the amplification of emerging technology exercises,the uncertainty of emerging technologies is reflected in market,technology and management,etc.Looking for the approach of decreasing the uncertainty of emerging technologies should pay close attention to organization learning,real options thinking,new organization forming,network structure optimizing,market focusing,scenario programming applying and so on. |
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| Keywords: | emerging technology uncertainty bounded rationality perceived risk |
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