农业系统风险的复杂性管理研究

农业系统是一个复杂系统 ,它具有组分和环境的复杂性、风险的不确定性、非线性、自组织和突变等特性 ,由此决定了农业系统风险也具有复杂性特征。为防范和化解农业系统风险 ,必须辩识吸引域 ,通过农业基本建设、发展节水农业和发展农产品期货市场等改变初始条件 ,使农业系统发生变化 ,预防农业风险 ;优化农业发展的宏观调控政策和政府行为 ,加强农业合同管理 ;构建信息网络 ,限制某些风险因素 ,抑制农业系统的复杂性成长 ,预防农业风险 ;通过加快农业产业化步伐 ,使之向贸工农一体化经营发展 ,发展农业保险事业等 ;实现新秩序协同 ,使农业系统向有序化方向演化 ,降低农业风险 ;大力发展生态农业 ,使农业系统自协调、自组织 ,预防农业自然风险

Study on the Management of the Complexity of Risk in Agricultural System

Agricultural system is a complex system, which has the features of the complexity of composition and environment, uncertainty of risk, non-linear, self-organization and mutation, etc. It thus determines that the risk in agricultural system has the characteristic of complexity.To prevent and mitigate the agricultural risk, we must identify domain of attraction and change the original conditions of agricultural system; avoid agricultural risk through optimizing macroscopic policies and government actions on agriculture development, strengthen the management of agricultural contracts, construct information network, restrain the complexity growth of agricultural risk system by restraining some risk factors; reduce agricultural risk through quickening the step of agricultural integration, making it into an integration of marketing processing and producing of agricultural products, developing agricultural insurance positively, accomplishing new order in coordination and making agricultural system evolve in the direction of order; take precautions against natural risk of agriculture through developing eco-agriculture energetically and making agricultural system self-coordinated and self-organized.