| 基于灰色径向基函数网络的铁路投资规模组合预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 周泰,叶怀珍,王亚玲.基于灰色径向基函数网络的铁路投资规模组合预测[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2009,8(4):33-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周泰 叶怀珍 王亚玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,物流学院,四川,成都,610031;西南交通大学,软件学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路固定资产投资是铁路建设不断发展的有力保证，为准确地预测铁路固定资产投资规模大小及其变化趋势，将GM（1，1）预测模型与径向基函数神经网络有效地结合起来，充分发挥灰色系统的贫乏数据建模和神经网络特有的高度非线性映射能力的双重优势，构建了一种新型的串联非线性组合预测模型。然后，以我国铁路1998—2007年的投资规模实际数据为基础，对“十一五”后半期的铁路固定资产投资规模进行了预测，并分析了预测结果的合理性。研究表明，该组合模型优于任何单一灰色预测模型，能很好地反映铁路固定资产投资规模的变化规律，在小样本、贫信息的奈件下，仍然能得到较合理精准的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路投资规模 组合预测 灰色系统 径向基函数网络 |
Combined Forecasting of Railway Investment Scale Based on Grey Radial Basis Function Neural Network |
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| ZHOU Tai,YE Huai-zhen,WANG Ya-ling.Combined Forecasting of Railway Investment Scale Based on Grey Radial Basis Function Neural Network[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University Social Sciences Edition,2009,8(4):33-37. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Tai YE Huai-zhen WANG Ya-ling |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Tai1,YE Huai-zhen1,WANG Ya-ling2 (1.College of Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610031,China,2.College of Software,China) |
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| Abstract: | The investment in railway fixed assets is a powerful guarantee for continuous development of railway construction.In order to forecast the scale and variation tendency of investment in railway fixed assets accurately,the authors combined model GM(1,1) and radial basis function(RBF) neural network together effectively,gave full scope to their double-edged advantages that the grey system can construct forecasting model with poor information and neural network was capable of highly non-linear mapping uniquely,... |
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| Keywords: | railway investment scale combined forecasting grey system radial basis function(RBF) neural network |
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