| Abstract: | Abstract An estimate of the value to a developing economy of preventing an additional birth is a useful yardstick for decisions about bonuses, information-and-dispensation campaigns, and propaganda campaigns. Enke's method of estimation incorrectly reckons private costs as public costs and attributes all the avoided consumption of the prevented child to the social account, whereas most of it would be otherwise consumed by the child's family. And at the discount rate Enke uses (15%) the effect of an added child on the marginal productivity of other workers is irrelevant. On the other hand, a 15% discount is shown to be inconsistent with other governmental decisions, and a lower discount rate reduces the value of a prevented birth in Enke's scheme. Hence Enke's method is internally inconsistent. Coale and Hoover's work on India enables one to generate an estimate for the value of an avoided birth on the basis of a complete and realistic macro-economic system. This was done by relating the differences in numbers of births in future periods (under two of the Coale-Hoover alternatives) to the differences in aggregate income that are projected (under the two alternatives). Even at the high discount rate of 15%, the value is $114. At lower discount rates the value is much higher. |
