内外部网络口碑与在线销售的动态交互过程——基于分层贝叶斯模型的解析

与以往单纯以内部网络口碑、相互独立的内部和外部网络口碑为研究对象，分析网络口碑与在线销售的关系不同。基于评论环境理论，采用分层贝叶斯模型，以当当网、京东、亚马逊和豆瓣网为数据搜集对象，在充分考虑网络口碑异质性及其来源多元化的条件下，结合外部网络口碑平台信息提供的特点，在进一步引入免费试样因素的基础上，对内外部网络口碑与在线销售的动态交互作用进行研究。结果发现：在异质性网络平台并存且效价差异较小的情境下，效价不再是影响在线销售的关键，而内部网络口碑数量、数量信息熵才是影响在线销售的关键，反过来在线销售也刺激了网络口碑数量的提升。虽然外部网络口碑的存在削弱了这一环形机制的积极影响，但免费试样可有效削弱该负向调节机制。

Understanding the Dynamic Process among Internal Online Word-of Mouth,External Online Word-of Mouth and Online Sales based on Hierarchical Bayesian Model

Unlike traditional studies, which take the internal online word of mouth, external online word of mouth or both as research objects to study the relationship between word of mouth and online sales, this paper, based on the Review Environment Theory, studied the dynamic interaction between internal & external online word of mouth and online sales, using the hierarchical Bayesian model and taking the Dangdang, Jingdong, Amazon and Douban as research objects, by introducing the factor of free sampling and considering the heterogeneity and diversified sources of online word-of-mouth. The results are as follows:when there is little difference between valence and the heterogeneity of online word-of-mouth, valence is no longer the key factor for online sales. The volume of internal word-of-mouth and the entropy of word-of-mouth are the key factors influencing online sales and online sales promote the volume of internal word of mouth. Though the external word-of-mouth negatively undermines the interplay between internal word-of-mouth and online sales, the free sampling negatively moderates this mechanism.