我国经济增长“软扩张”过程中的“反弹效应”度量及其检验

我国经济实现"软着陆"以后,经济增长一直在平稳运行中酝酿着积极"反弹"的势头。2003年我国经济增长速度快速攀升到9 1%,意味着我国经济增长过程中一轮具有"软扩张"性质的经济周期波动已经开始。为此,我们利用推广的马尔可夫区制转移模型(Markovs witching model)来描述我国经济增长过程的动态性质。通过模型估计和检验,发现我国经济增长过程中存在显著的"反弹效应",并且导致了经济周期波动的非对称性。在当前经济周期态势下,经济政策仍然应该保持稳定的操作方向,以保证"反弹效应"充分体现出来,并促使我国经济增长"软扩张"过程的巩固、持续和完成。

Tests for the Bounced Effects in the Stages of Soft Expanding of China's Economy

After the realization of soft landing,China’s economic growth is very stable and always keeps accumulating the energy for bouncing up.In 2003,the growth rapidly climbed to 9.1%,and this means the beginning of new business cycle with the characteristics of soft expanding.We used the Markov regime switching model to describe the dynamics of the stage of soft expanding,and found the evidences supporting the existence of bouncing effects in current situations.At the same time,we measured the duration of bounced effects and the asymmetry in the business cycle.The implications of tests are that we should still keep the procyclical policy and ensure the complete realizations of bounced effects.This is very helpful to the stage of soft expanding to be formed,solidified and finished.