美元利率的现状与走势研究——兼论美联储利率政策

近年来,美联储频繁使用联邦基金利率这一调节货币市场供求关系的重要工具,对美国货币市场的长短期利率以及美国经济产生了复杂的影响.2004年以来,美元短期利率总体走势先抑后扬,而长期利率总体走势先扬后抑.基于对美国2005年经济形势以及美联储利率政策回顾与总结,预测美联储将以每次加息25个基点的方式在2005年底将联邦基金利率提高到"中性水平"4.2%,10年期国债的收益率将缓慢上涨到5%,长短期利差也将进一步收窄.

A study of the actuality and trend of dollar interest rate-Research on the interest rate policy of American Federal Reserve Committee

In recent years American Federal Reserve Committee has frequently used the federal fund interest rate, which is an important tool regulating supply-demand relationship of money market. This has exerted a complicated influence on dollar interest rate and American economy. Since 2004 the dollar short-term interest rate rised after restraining, and the dollar long-term interest rate restrained after rising. Based on the economic situation in 2005 and the review about the interest rate policy of American Federal Reserve Committee, this paper predicts: American Federal Reserve Committee will bring the federal fund interest rate up to 4.2% at the end of 2005. The 10-year treasury yield will go up to 5% slowly, and the margin of interest rate will narrow down further.