1999-2010年长三角地区引进FDI与二氧化碳排放的相关性评估

应用单整检验和EG两步法,证明了长三角地区FDI规模与二氧化碳排放量存在协整关系.利用格兰杰因果检验,证明了滞后期为1～2时,长三角地区FDI变化是二氧化碳排放量变化的原因,但二氧化碳排放量变化不是江苏省FDI变化的原因.从产业结构看,长三角地区第一产业FDI的变化与二氧化碳排放变化没有因果关系；从长期看长三角地区第二产业FDI的变化是碳排放量变化的原因.利用灰色系统理论评估了江苏省与浙江省高耗能行业FDI与二氧化碳排放量的相关度,结果表明,两省FDI与二氧化碳排放量都具有较高的关联度.

The Assessment on the Correlation between the Scale of FDI and Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 1999 to 2010

This article outlines the size and structure characteristics of FDI in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 1999 to 2010 and estimates precisely of the 1999-2010 years of Jiangsu Province,Zhejiang Province and Shanghai FDI carbon dioxide emissions.By using single-integration test and EG two-step test,this paper proves that the correlation relationship exists between the scale of FDI and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region,and indicates that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them.Granger causality test proves that when lag period is 1-2,the change of FDI is the cause of carbon emission change in the Yangtze River Delta Region,otherwise it is not established.The inspection conclusions of FDI effects of carbon emissions on the three industries in the Yangtze River Delta Region are that: there is no causal relationship between changes of FDI of the primary industry and the variations of the carbon emission.In the long run,FDI’s changes of the secondary industry in the Yangtze River Delta Region are the causes of carbon emissions changes.Whether in the short-term or long-term,the changes of the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region are reason for FDI scale of the tertiary industry to change.The gray system theory evaluate the Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province high energy-consuming industries FDI and carbon dioxide emissions,the results show that the provinces have a high degree of correlation.