技术进步对陕西省经济增长贡献的实证研究

技术进步是国家与各省经济增长的关键。运用CES生产函数模型和泰勒级数估计法，对技术进步及各要素对陕西省经济增长的贡献率进行测算，分析结果表明，陕西省劳动力的价值不能被资本的价值完全替代，总体经济处于规模报酬递增的阶段，仍是以劳动密集型产业为主导，资本基础存量低于劳动力基础存量。实证分析的结果显示，资本、劳动、资本劳动力组合以及全要素生产率对经济增长的年均贡献率1978～2003年分别为95．26％、24．01％、-24．17％和4．9％，说明陕西省的经济增长主要是依靠物质资本的大量投入，在很长一段时间内，甚至是以牺牲综合效率为代价的。而在体制、管理、技术、工艺、经营意识等方面还存在着一定的制约因素。

An Empirical Study on the Contribution of Technology Advancement to the Economic Growth

In this paper,we use CES Production Function and Taylor Series to estimate the contribution rate of technology advancement to the economic growth of Shaanxi Province.The result shows that,in Shaanxi Province,the value of labor force can not be completely substituted by the value of capital.The total economy is placed in the stage of Increasing-return to scale,still with the labor intensive type industry be predominant,and the capital stock is lower than the labor force foundation stock..The result also indicates that,the contribution rate of capital,labor,the combination of capital and labor force and the total factor productivity to the economy during 1978-2003 years is 95.26%,24.01%,-24.17% and 4.9%,respectively.It is shown that during a very long period,the economic development in Shaanxi Province primarily depends on capital input,even with the sacrifice of the synthetically efficiency,while in the system,there are some restriction of management,technology,craft,management sense etc.