Low Confidence in Social Security Is Not Warranted

The public's low confidence in Social Security is unwarranted. Social Security as discussed here means the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance program (OASDI) but does not include Medicare. Its financial condition is excellent in the short range and sound in the long range, based on intermediate-cost estimates. Those who believe otherwise are too pessimistic about our demographic and economic future. The OASDI cost rates are expected to remain at today's level for the next three decades, and will rise starting about 2020. The cost rates are expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll. Because the taxable payroll as a proportion to total compensation is projected to decline, the cost rates in the future will rise even when benefit payments do not. This problem could be solved by a method that effectively taxes total compensation at a constant percentage rate. Another reason for cost rates to rise is population aging. It is possible to reduce the cost rates if educational and work environments are made more hospitable to long worklives. Although population aging is a basic reason for OASDI costs to increase, only about two thirds of such costs are for retirement benefits. The rest is for disabled workers and families of workers.