市场主体信心与财政乘数效应的非线性特征——基于SVAR模型的反事实分析

本文基于SVAR模型和反事实分析,利用季度数据,实证考察了市场信心对我国财政政策乘数效应重要影响。分析表明,在经济遭遇较强外部冲击时,以支出扩张为主的需求管理有助于提振市场信心,市场信心恢复放大了财政政策乘数效应。但随着经济逐步走出危机阴影,市场信心作用开始减弱。同时随着需求管理政策实施时间递延,支出扩张的边际增长效应开始递减,为满足支出需要,持续增税的负面效应开始递增。扩支增收效应相互叠加,再加上财政收支结构不当选择,使市场主体信心开始逐步受到侵蚀,并产生较强谨慎动机。市场信心和财政政策的相互作用,使财政政策乘数效应快速减弱。所以动态考察我国以扩支增收为主要特征的财政调控,尽管应对危机的乘数效应特别显著,但长期看乘数效应却非常弱,甚至出现非凯恩斯效应。本文政策含义非常明确,充分利用市场信心与财政政策效应非线性特征先验知识,适时转换需求管理型财政调控策略,既可避免经济增长对财政扩张政策过度依赖,又可提高财政政策灵活性、有效性和可持续性。

The Main-body Confidence of the Market and the Characteristic of Nonlinearity of the Fiscal Multiplier Effect: An Analysis Based on the Non-fact of the SVAR

Nonlinear effects of fiscal policies have been studied in recent years. Based on the SVAR model and counterfactu- al analysis, this text studies whether market confidence has played an important role in multiplier effects of fiscal poli- cies since 1999.The conclusion indicates the multiplier sizes of fiscal impulses aren’ t significantly different with or without confidence, however, the multiplier size of fiscal impulse is bigger with confidence than that without confidence when the economy suffers from strong shocks. The phenomenon above stems from the strategies of fiscal policies, de- mand management based on expenditure expansion can significantly boost market confidence during the crisis, but the size of multiplier becomes smaller and smaller as the policy is to continue. To satisfy expenditure need, the government has to increase the taxation, which deteriorates market confidence and induces a stronger cautious motivation.