中国养老制度变迁对城镇居民储蓄的影响

现收现付制和基金积累制是养老保险筹资的两种基本模式．我国目前正在推行的养老保险制度是统账结合制，在本质上是部分基金积累制。现收现付制可以实现养老金的代际转移，在支付规模小、人口负担较轻的情况下这种养老制度具有可行性，而在人口老龄化的压力下，此制度受到严重挑战，于是各国养老金制度纷纷向基金积累制过渡。本文通过实证的方法分析现收现付制与统账结合制对中国城镇居民储蓄的影响，结果显示统账结合制会使储蓄减少25％，其主要原因在于我国养老金制度变迁过程中转轨成本的消化会对城镇居民储蓄产生负作用。

The Effect of the Change of Chinese Pension Insurance on Savings Deposits of Urban Residents

The pay as you go system and the fully fund system are the two basic patterns of endowment insurance financing. China＇s present endowment insurance system is partial fund system. The pay as you go system can transfer between generations. It is feasible when the scale of payment and burden of population are small. Under the burden of aging society, the pay as you go system is challenged seriously. So many countries began to carry out partial fund system gradually. Using demonstration method,this paper analyzed the effect of the pay as you go system and the fully fund system on savings deposits of urban residents. The result is the partial fund system may reduce savings deposits of urban residents by 25%. The main reason is that the transition cost will decrease savings deposits of urban residents.