Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna |
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| Authors: | Hiroyuki Matsuda Yasuto Takenaka Tetsukazu Yahara and Yuji Uozumi |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Areard CREST, Japan Science and Technology Corporation, c/o Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, 164-8639 Nakano-ku, Tokyo, Japan;(2) Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, 164-8639 Nakano-ku, Tokyo, Japan;(3) Department of Biology, Kyushu University, Hakozaki 6-10-1, 812-81 Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, Japan;(4) Pelagic Fish Resources Division, National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Orito 5-7-1, 424 Shimizu, Japan |
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| Abstract: | We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed
as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large
and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase
in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size,
if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population
will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that
extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing. |
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| Keywords: | extinction probability red list categories population decrease time-series analysis tunas |
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