The inflation–output volatility trade-off: a case where anti-inflation monetary policy turns out to be successful, a historical assessment

Over the period 1988–2000, the Greek monetary authorities seemed to have implemented a successful disinflation policy. The question, however, is whether this disinflation was optimal or not. This paper, through a theoretical model and the GMM approach, constructs an optimal policy frontier in terms of a trade-off between output and inflation variabilities. The frontier yields increases in the output variance when policymakers attempt to decrease inflation variances, and vice versa. The location of the actual monetary policy performance suggests a policy close to the frontier, implying a successful monetary policy.