寻求我国GDP对FDI的最优依存度与FDI最优规模——基于1980~003年我国GDP与FDI非线性动力系统的研究

我国FDI与GDP增长之间的关系问题,一直是学术界探究的问题,FDI与GDP之间存在线性关系已是普遍的结论。然而,本质上FDI与GDP之间存在非线性关系,略去非线性关系,用线性模型还不能深刻揭示FDI对GDP增长的作用。本文应用韩得瑞(Hendry)倡导的“一般到特殊”方法建立了我国GDP—FDI非线性动力系统(CG-FNLDS)模型,其表明,我国GDP与FDI是相互推动的,但由于FDI内部发生阻塞现象,FDI具有增长极限。CG-FNLDS相图中具有一个稳定的结点吸引子,FDI最优规模为1116亿美元,最优的FDI/GDP值为2.95%,因而,目前进入我国的FDI还有一定的增长空间,但难以超过GDP速度增长,CG-FNLDS向结点运动过程正是其自我调节过程。进一步对CG-FNLDS进行最优控制时,可以把损失减少到最低限度,但从长远上我国还是要趁早采取有效措施增强我国GDP自主增长后劲。

In search of China's Optimum Degree of Dependence of GDP upon FDIand in the Hunt for the Best Scale of FDI

The relationship between China's FDI and GDP growth has been an academic question. Although it has been a generally accepted conclusion that there exists a linear relationship between FDI and GDP, essentially there is a nonlinear connection between them: omitting their nonlinear relations, we cannot profoundly reveal the effect of FDI upon the FDI growth. Using the method of " from the general to the particular" initiated by Hendry, we have formed for China's GDP-PDI relationship a CG-FNIDS model, which shows that China's GDP and FDI are interactive, and that FDI has a limitation in growth owing to the blockage within FDI. The CG-FNLDS diagram has a steady terminal attractor, the optimal scale of FDI being 111.6 billion US dollars and the optimal ratio between FDI and GDP being 2.95%. Therefore, there is more room at present for FDI to enter into China, but its growing rate is hard to exceed that of China's GDP. The course of CG-FNLDS moving to the nodal point is just the process of its self-adjustment. Further optimum control over CG-FNLDS may reduce the loss to the minimum, but in the long run, China had better adopt effective measures--before it is too late--to augment her staying-power of increasing GDP on her own.