论现代经济预测方法的分类原理

分析了现代经济预测的定化、面对数据流、灰色、非线性、动态和智能化等主要特征。简要回顾了经济预测的传统分类方法，认为它己不能很好地满足现代经济预测的要求。然后，根据现代经济的预测特征，结合现代数学、计算机技术和信息技术等的发展，提出了一种新的经济预测分类方法。并阐述了这种分类方法在现代经济预测中所适用的范围。由于现代经济的变化是复杂多变的，在预测时为了准确、真买、迅速地反映其运行规律，有时采用多种预测方法组合预测，有时采用动态仿真预测。

THE CLASSIFICATION MECHANISM OF MOURNED ECONOMIC PREDICTION METHOD

The main characteristics of mourned economic prediction, such as quantitativity facing data flow, grey, non-linear, dynamic and emulation etc, are analyzed. The tranditional classification method is briefly reviewed, and it is recognized the method can meet the requirement of modern economic prediction well. Then, according to predicting characteristic of modern economy, combining the development of modern mathematics, computer technology and IT etc. a new classification method of economic prediction is put forward, and the applying scope of the method in modern economic prediction descriped. Because of complicated and changeable modern economy, multiple prediction methods or dynamic emulation method is applied in prediction, so that the operation law can be reflected precisely, realistically and quickly.