| Abstract: | This paper examines the duration and frequency of unemployment contingent on personal characteristics using multinomial logit techniques. Both are important, since unemployment is the product of the duration and frequency of unemployment. The key result of this paper is that union and nonunion unemployment experiences are very different. Nonunion construction workers’ duration and frequency experiences depend on personal characteristics. In the union sector, in spite of rules which appear to favor experienced workers, duration experiences do not differ greatly by demographic group; only the probability of unemployment varies with personal characteristics. The report was prepared for the Employment and Training Administration. U.S. Department of Labor, under Research and Development Grant No. 91-42-77-33. Since grantees conducting research and development projects under Government sponsorship are encouraged to express their own judgment freely, this report does not necessarily represent the official opinion or policy of the Department of Labor. The grantee is solely responsible for the contents of this report. I have benefited from comments by Robert E. Hall, Franklin M. Fisher, Lester C. Thurow, James Medoff, Dennis Carlton, and especially Jerry Hausman. James Medoff supplied the CPS tape used in the study. Martin VanDenburgh gave expert programming advice. |
