Latent Class Marginal Models for Cross-Classifications of Counts

The standard latent class model is a finite mixture of indirectly observed multinomial distributions, each of which is assumed to exhibit statistical independence. Latent class analysis has been applied in a wide variety of research contexts, including studies of mobility, educational attainment, agreement, and diagnostic accuracy, and as measurement error models in social research. One of the attractive features of the latent class model in these settings is that the parameters defining the individual multinomials are readily interpretable marginal probabilities, conditional on the unobserved latent variable(s), that are often of substantive interest. There are, however, settings where the local-independence axiom is not supported, and hence it is useful to consider some form of local dependence. In this paper we consider a family of models defined in terms of finite mixtures of multinomial models where the multinomials are parameterized in terms of a set of models for the univariate marginal distributions and for marginal associations. Local dependence is introduced through the models for marginal associations, and the standard latent class model obtains as a special case. Three examples are analyzed with the models to illustrate their utility in analyzing complex cross-classifications.