| Abstract: | This article examines the last two Israeli election campaignsof 1981 and 1984, and suggests that structural variables greatlyaffect the accuracy of reported preelection polls. Pollsters'quest for more detail and refinement driven by competition andmass media pressures for highly processed predictions is liableto result in less accurate reports. The kind of errors in polls'projections are situation-bound and greatly depend on the natureof the floating vote in the system. Interpollster accuracy,however, is mainly determined by pollster–sponsor dependencies.Pollsters working for political parties projected results morefavorable to their sponsors or less favorable to their sponsors'opponents. Moreover, the stronger the pollster–sponsorstructural dependencies, the greater the inaccuracy. |
